Shrinking job opportunities, employment anomalies, uncertain prospects - there are few countries in Europe where these issues do not prove the toughest nut to crack for policy makers . Hungary is no exception, and given the state of labour market, we belong to the group of laggards in the EU-27. The country’s abnormally low employment and high inactivity indicators have ranked poorly in international comparison for nearly two decades now, and in the present era of post-crisis adjustment we are also faced with an unemployment rate of over 10 percent. The causes of this unfavourable state are deeply rooted and manifold, thus we cannot expect easy diagnoses and quick solutions arriving neither from the government nor from the representatives of the academic world. We do, however, believe in the competency and capability of our profession: an innovative and well-targeted research program can lead to finding ways out of this situation. That is the reason why we have decided to take on this project which aims to design an apparatus that produces reliable medium- and long-term forecasts of the changes in the labour market. The innovative approach on which the project is based has been long overdue. Unlike their peers in other countries so far Hungarian economists have not given sufficient consideration to the creation of quality predictions that can aid in harmonizing the demand and supply of labour.
The objective of this project is to establish a reliable forecast and to convey the results to all interested parties including job-seekers, future employers, employment and educational policy makers and strategists. The main task is to create a system (a model framework and a databank) that is apt at producing reliable forecasts and also to build up an information network that utilizes the results of the forecasts. Our analysis will integrate past trends and expectations of the Hungarian economy with an increased awareness of the possible breaks and changes in the future patterns of development.
With detailed analysis and comparison of both the demand and supply of labour, including indicators for the probability of placement, the project will strive to help institutions that aim to gauge and mediate labour market demands and to support job-seekers.
TÁMOP’s planned forecasts and the service based on them will contribute to bringing balance to the demand and supply of the labour market. It will provide valuable help to career starters or changers in making informed decisions. It will also guide educational strategy and refine the expectations of employers.
The main tasks of the research program: